2nd Feb, 2026 @ 05:19 pm

Predictions for the Benfica vs Real Madrid match heavily favor the away team, and this game is also predicted to have many goals scored.

Football predictionsBenfica vs Real Madrid: Expect a goalfest.

Benfica had a disastrous start to their Champions League group stage campaign this season, losing all four of their opening matches, although two consecutive 2-0 victories against Ajax and Napoli rekindled hopes of securing a play-off spot. However, that resurgence crumbled last week when the Portuguese side suffered a 0-2 away defeat to Juventus, a result that makes their chances of finishing in the Top 24 very difficult.

Jose Mourinho's team currently sits 29th out of 36 teams, two points behind the top 24. Theoretically, Benfica still has a chance to qualify for the play-offs if they win their final match and other results go their way. Real Madrid is Benfica's final opponent in this season's Champions League qualifying round. Predictions for the Benfica vs Real Madrid match heavily favor the visitors, and this game is also predicted to be a high-scoring affair.

The Portuguese giants can be confident of securing three points against Los Blancos thanks to their glorious history, having lifted the championship trophy twice, including a victory over Real Madrid in the 1961/62 season's final. Furthermore, their 5-1 win in their only previous encounter at home gives Benfica two wins in three previous meetings between the two teams.

Benfica entered their match against Real Madrid with impressive home form, having secured their fourth consecutive home win with a 4-0 victory over Estrela Amadora last weekend, placing them third in the Primeira Liga table and 10 points behind the leaders. That win came at a crucial time for Mourinho's side, who had lost three of their previous four matches – a run that saw them eliminated from the Portuguese Cup and hampered their pursuit of a top-24 finish in the Champions League.

Real Madrid have also experienced significant upheaval in recent weeks, beginning with a defeat in the Spanish Super Cup final against arch-rivals Barcelona, ​​a result that led to the sacking of Xabi Alonso, before Alvaro Arbeloa witnessed a disappointing Copa del Rey defeat against second-division side Albacete in his first match in charge.

Since then, Real Madrid have won all three of their most recent matches in all competitions, including a 2-0 away win against Villarreal last weekend, where a brace from Kylian Mbappe helped them close the gap with La Liga leaders Barcelona to just one point. The French forward also scored a brace four days earlier in a 6-1 victory over Monaco in the Champions League, bringing his total goals in the competition to 11. The three points against Monaco lifted Real to third place in the table, two points ahead of ninth-placed teams.

After securing three points from five of their seven qualifying matches (losing two), Real Madrid only need one more win to guarantee direct qualification to the Round of 16, and they are confident of achieving this, having won eight of their last ten matches against Portuguese opponents in the Champions League, including four consecutive away wins.

Benfica are still without Alexander Bah (knee injury), Samuel Soares (muscle), Dodi Lukebakio (ankle) and Henrique Araujo (muscle), while Richard Rios will miss his fourth consecutive game due to fitness issues. Sidny Lopes Cabral, January signing, scored in the win against Estrela Amadora but is ineligible to play, as is Rafa Silva, who is also absent for the same reason. Nicolas Otamendi is close to becoming the third Argentinian player to reach 100 Champions League appearances, after Lionel Messi and Angel Di Maria. Vangelis Pavlidis ended a three-game goalless streak with a brace at the weekend and will try to maintain that momentum in this match.

For Real Madrid, Mbappe is in incredibly impressive form, having scored in all three of his most recent matches, bringing his total to five goals during this period. The visitors will continue to be without Trent Alexander-Arnold (thigh injury), Eder Militao (hamstring), Ferland Mendy (hamstring), and Antonio Rudiger (knee). Aurelien Tchouameni returns to the squad after serving his suspension in the league win against Villarreal, while Alvaro Carreras will face his former club after his move from Benfica to Real Madrid last summer.

Special analysis of the Benfica vs Real Madrid match. 

Real Madrid won.

Benfica have played very well at home this season, but they are clearly still considered far inferior to Real Madrid. Besides the quality of their squad, experience in this competition is also a factor where Los Blancos have a significant advantage over their opponents. The Spanish team might face some difficulties against the home side's determination, but with their much higher level of play, they are highly likely to secure all three points.

At least 3 goals

This match is likely to be high-scoring, as Benfica needs a win to have any hope of finishing in the Top 24. With home advantage, they will play offensively against Real Madrid, while the favored Los Blancos will not play defensively. It will be an open, attacking game from both sides, and the match is predicted to be exciting and full of goals. Recent Real Madrid Champions League matches have often been high-scoring affairs, and the upcoming match could follow a similar pattern.